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January 25 2021 Emerging Markets Just Get Going

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Global Investment Committee | January 25, 2021
The GIC Weekly
Emerging Markets Just Get Going
Emerging market (EM) equities have outperformed recently, bolstered by a rapid rebound in China, recovering global trade, a weaker US dollar and stronger commodity prices. While EM markets may need to consolidate, the GIC is not ready to abandon them. Short term, we don’t think cyclical economic momentum will be derailed by lagging vaccination efforts, and longer term, we expect EM equities will lead in the next market cycle. Importantly, we appreciate China’s post- pandemic strength and policy flexibility, factors that should make its growing middle class hungry consumers of the rest of Asia’s exports. EM economies are recovering from dual crises of the trade war and the pandemic, which could boost earnings growth for the next two years. What’s more, EM inflation is low, and current account balances are at 15-year highs. Valuations remain attractive as the equity risk premium, at 9.3%, is near a multidecade high. Consider redeploying gains in US equities in actively managed EM equities, with an emphasis on Asia.
During the past three months, a procyclical reflationary trade has swept through global capital markets, bolstered by several meaningful upside surprises: the earlier- than-expected availability of credible COVID-19 vaccines, the New Year’s Eve passage of $900 billion in additional fiscal stimulus by the US Congress; and the Jan. 5 surprise sweep of the Georgia US Senatorial races that delivered a ruling majority to the Democrats. Optimism for economic recovery from the pandemic- induced recession has driven the major US equity indexes to all-time highs. The same enthusiasm has steepened the yield curve, compressed credit spreads to record lows and prompted procyclical rotations toward small caps and value-style stocks. Along with this broad market action, the US dollar declined 4%, the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index rose 27% and emerging markets (EM) equities surged as well. In fact, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gained 27.4% versus the S&P 500 Index’s 16.0%.
As investors now turn toward progress on vaccine rollouts as the key metric pacing the anticipated recovery, some investors are questioning the durability of the EM rally. Specifically, current vaccine procurement plans suggest that herd immunity targets may be reached in the US and Europe by the third quarter, signaling the
Lisa Shalett
Chief Investment Officer
Head of the Global Investment Office Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Lisa.Shalett@morganstanley.com
+1 212 296-0335
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Morgan Stanley Wealth Management is the trade name of Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC, a registered broker-dealer in the United States. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

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