Vaccine Shaped Recovery Global Economics Analyst
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Text | Vaccine Shaped Recovery Global Economics Analyst | 001
7 November 2020 | 2:54PM EST
Note: The following is a redacted version of the original report published November 7, 2020 [16 pgs].
Global Economics Analyst
n President-elect Joe Biden will likely have to work with a Republican Senate majority, limiting his ability to implement the Democratic fiscal agenda. Nevertheless, we expect a $1 trillion stimulus package, potentially enacted before his inauguration on January 20. This is less than half of what we might have seen under a Democratic sweep, but it should suffice for a small positive fiscal impulse to US growth in coming quarters.
n More important for the growth outlook is the second wave of coronavirus infections that is now sweeping the United States and especially Europe, where governments have already reacted with renewed partial lockdowns. This has led us to downgrade our Q4/Q1 GDP estimates on both sides of the Atlantic; in fact, we now expect the European economy to contract significantly in Q4. These revisions have brought down our 2021 global GDP forecast to 6.0% (vs. consensus of 5.2%) and the near-term risks remain on the downside.
n But just as the global economy rebounded quickly (albeit partially) from the lockdowns in the spring, we expect the current weakness to give way to much stronger growth when the European lockdowns end and a vaccine becomes available. Assuming the FDA approves at least one vaccine by January and mass immunization of the general population starts shortly thereafter, as we expect, growth should pick up sharply in Q2. The apparent lack of scarring effects from the earlier GDP plunge is consistent with this view.
n The DM central banks are likely to steer a dovish path for the next several years. Even under our forecast of a strong growth rebound, labor market conditions will normalize only gradually and inflation looks set to remain below central bank targets. We expect the Fed, the ECB, and the Bank of England to wait until 2025 before hiking rates; besides, the ECB looks set to deliver additional QE next month.
n Our growth forecasts in the emerging world in 2021-22 are mostly above consensus. The main exception is China, where output is already back to pre-pandemic levels, credit is growing rapidly, and fiscal policy remains very expansionary. Policymakers look set to react by easing off the accelerator, which should result in a modest sequential growth slowdown.
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Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.
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